The 6D Bias and the Equity Premium Puzzle

If decision costs lead agents to update consumption every D periods, then econometricians will find an anomalously low correlation between equity returns and consumption growth (Lynch 1996). We analytically characterize the dynamic properties of an economy composed of consumers who have such delayed updating. In our setting, an econometrician using an Euler equation procedure would infer a coefficient of relative risk aversion biased up by a factor of 6D. Hence with quarterly data, if agents adjust their consumption every D = 4 quarters, the imputed coefficient of relative risk aversion will be 24 times greater than the true value. High levels of risk aversion implied by the equity premium and violations of the Hansen-Jagannathan bounds cease to be puzzles. The neoclassical model with delayed adjustment explains the consumption behavior of shareholders. Once limited participation is taken into account, the model matches most properties of aggregate consumption and equity returns, including new evidence that the covariance between ln(Ct+h/Ct) and Rt+1 slowly rises with h.

Shrouded Attributes, Consumer Myopia, and Information Suppression in Competitive Markets

Bayesian consumers infer that hidden add-on prices (e.g. the cost of ink for a printer) are likely to be high prices. If consumers are Bayesian, firms will not shroud information in equilibrium. However, shrouding may occur in an economy with some myopic (or unaware) consumers. Such shrouding creates an inefficiency, which firms may have an incentive to eliminate by educating their competitors' customers. However, if add-ons have close substitutes, a "curse of debiasing" arises, and firms will not be able to profitably debias consumers by unshrouding add-ons. In equilibrium, two kinds of exploitation coexist. Optimizing firms exploit myopic consumers through marketing schemes that shroud high-priced add-ons. In turn, sophisticated consumers exploit these marketing schemes. It is not possible to profitably drive away the business of sophisticates. It is also not possible to profitably lure either myopes or sophisticates to non-exploitative firms. We show that informational shrouding flourishes even in highly competitive markets, even in markets with costless advertising, and even when the shrouding generates allocational inefficiencies.

The implications of hyperbolic discounting for project evaluation

The neoclassical theory of project evaluation is based on models in which agents discount the future at a constant exponential rate. But there is strong empirical evidence that people discount the future hyperbolically, applying larger annual discount rates to near-term returns than to returns in the distant future. This has led some policymakers to argue that, in evaluating programs with benefits spread over decades (such as subway systems and abatement of greenhouse gases), a low long-term discount rate should be used. In fact, some economists have suggested that higher discount rates be applied in the present and lower rates in the future. The authors demonstrate that this is incorrect. The problem with hyperbolic discounting is that it leads to time-inconsistent plans -- a person who discounts the future hyperbolically will not carry out the consumption plans he makes today. The authors note that if social decisionmakers were to use people's 1998 hyperbolic rates of time preferences, plans made in 1998 would not be followed -- because the low discount rate applied to returns in, say, 2020, will become a high discount rate as the year 2020 approaches. Since it makes sense to analyze only plans that will actually be followed, the authors characterize the equilibrium of an intertemporal game played by an individual who discounts the future hyperbolically. Along an equilibrium consumption path, the individual will behave as though he were discounting the future at a constant exponential rate. The individual's consumption path is, however, Pareto inferior: He would be better off if he could force himself to consume less and save more. This provides a rationale for government subsidization of interest rates or, equivalently, lowering the required rate of return on investment projects. Although hyperbolic discounting provides a rationale for lowering the required rate of return on investment projects, it does not provide justification for those who seek to treat environmental projects differently from other investment projects.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Financial Intermediation,Banks&Banking Reform,ICT Policy and Strategies,Inequality,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies

Reducing the Complexity Costs of 401(k) Participation Through Quick Enrollment(TM)

The complexity of the retirement savings decision may overwhelm employees, encouraging procrastination and reducing 401(k) enrollment rates. We study a low-cost manipulation designed to simplify the 401(k) enrollment process. Employees are given the option to make a Quick Enrollment(TM) election to enroll in their 401(k) plan at a pre-selected contribution rate and asset allocation. By decoupling the participation decision from the savings rate and asset allocation decisions, the Quick Enrollment(TM) mechanism simplifies the savings plan decision process. We find that at one company, Quick Enrollment(TM) tripled 401(k) participation rates among new employees three months after hire. When Quick Enrollment(TM) was offered to previously hired non-participating employees at two firms, participation increased by 10 to 20 percentage points among those employees affected.

Good policies for bad governments: behavioral political economy

Politicians and policymakers are prone to the same biases as private citizens. Even if politicians are rational, little suggests that they have altruistic interests. Such concerns lead us to be wary of proposals that rely on benign governments to implement interventionist policies that "protect us from ourselves." The authors recommend paternalism that recognizes both the promise and threat of activist government. They support interventions that channel behavior without taking away consumers' ability to choose for themselves. Such "benign paternalism" can lead to very dramatic behavioral changes. But benign paternalism does not give government true authority to control our lives and does not give private agents an incentive to reject such authority through black markets and other corrosive violations of the rule of law. The authors discuss five examples of policy interventions that will generate significant welfare gains without reducing consumer liberties. They believe that all policy proposals should be viewed with healthy skepticism. No doctor would prescribe a drug that only worked in theory. Likewise, economic policies should be tested with small-scale field experiments before they are adopted.Macroeconomics ; Economics ; Economic policy

Economic Implications of Extraordinary Movements in Stock Prices

macroeconomics, stock market